Spain's state weather agency AEMET has forecasted the possible arrival of the first summer heat wave starting this Saturday [1].
The event signals a potentially dangerous start to the season, as the agency predicts a generalized and very intense increase in both daytime and nighttime temperatures across much of the country [1, 2].
Rubén del Campo, a spokesperson for AEMET, said that given the expected high temperatures, the persistence of the episode, and the geographic extent, it is likely the first heat wave of the summer [1]. The extreme weather is expected to impact most of peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands, with specific warnings for Aragón and Castilla y León [1, 4].
Peak temperatures are expected on Sunday, coinciding with the official start of the climatological summer. Some reports indicate thermometers could exceed 42°C [3], while other forecasts suggest maximums above 38°C, with several cities exceeding 40°C [2].
Timing for the onset of the heat wave varies across reports. While AEMET expects the surge to begin this Saturday [1], some reports suggest the first heat wave could arrive the following week [4].
This episode follows a broader trend of rising temperatures in the region. AEMET estimates there is a 50% to 70% probability that the climatological summer, spanning June through August, will be hotter than normal in most of the country [5]. Some projections suggest this specific heat wave could extend as far as Aug. 13 [6].
Mercedes Martín said this is a new episode of extreme heat that could become the first heat wave of the summer [2].
“It is likely that we are facing the first heat wave of this summer.”
The early arrival of an intense heat wave, coupled with a high probability of a warmer-than-average summer, suggests a period of sustained environmental stress for Spain. This pattern increases the risk of wildfires and public health crises, particularly in the interior regions like Castilla y León and Aragón, while putting pressure on national energy grids during the initial summer peak.
